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Thứ Năm, 7 tháng 11, 2013

You rarely see such beautiful satellite pictures of cyclones approaching the Northwest coast--a beautiful spiral of clouds or water vapor.   See for yourself:  first an infrared image and then a water vapor image.

 You don't have to be much of a meteorologist to know where the low pressure center is....in the middle of the spiral!   From limited buoy reports, it appears that the storm's central pressure is around 992-994 hPa.  Models are forecasting that the low will weaken a bit as it approaches the NW tip of the Olympic peninsula.  Winds will pick up today in western Washington as the low moves eastward across NW Washington.

Let's look at the short-term forecast of the UW WRF model for sea level pressure and sustained wind at 7AM. 991 hPa low center and wind getting to 50 kts (the red colors). Notice where the strong winds are in such a marine cyclone:  to the south and west of the low center.  Meteorologists some times call this the "poisonous tail of the bent-back occlusion"   I love that phrase.  Winds are very weak near the center of the low.
  


Here is a short-term forecast of the NOAA HRRR model for 10 AM, showing sustained winds (knots).   Sustained at 40-45 kts...with higher gusts, of course. My advice:  I v would not take that Westport of Neah Bay fishing trip today.



After the low passes there will be strong winds in the Strait of Juan de Fuca...winds that will be felt over Whidbey Island and into Everett/Mukilteo (see wind forecast for 7 PM).  Guess who will be talking about strong Strait winds tonight in Mukilteo (see below)?  Don't worry...they won't be like the events I will be talking about.


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