Major Blow On Saturday

 Storm Update at 10 PM Friday..

(Special announcement at the bottom of this blog.)


If you were thinking of raking the leaves tomorrow, don't.

If you were considering an outdoor activity on Saturday, find a good movie.

Winds are coming on Saturday...yes, with some rain as well.  And something else, something white.

The models are all pretty much in agreement: a strong low pressure center will swing across southern Vancouver Island and then across southern B.C. on Saturday, with some serious wind and rain for the region. Here is the UW WRF model forecast for sea level pressure (solid lines), winds (barbs), and temperature (shading) for 5 AM Saturday.  An elongated low center is just offshore, with very large pressure differences behind it.

 Nine hours later the low is centered over Vancouver, BC with a very large pressure gradient over western Washington and the coastal waters...these will bring big winds, gusting to 50-70 mph along the coast and 30-60 mph over inland areas.

The sustained wind forecasts are shown below (gusts are stronger).   At 5 AM, when the low is still offshore, the strongest winds (30 knots and more) will be along the coast and the inland waters of western Washington.

 

By 11 AM, sustained winds of 35-40 knots will dominate the coast and winds in the interior (like Seattle) will greatly strengthen....stronger along the water.

 But the real excitement will occur as the low moves to the northeast (5 PM).  Winds along the coast will strengthen and a strong westerly wind surge will move eastward down the Strait, raking northern Whidbey Island, with sustained winds of around 40 kts.

Here is a chart of the predicted gusts at that time.  Impressive--60 kt gusts over the eastern Strait.  Expect some power outages on Whidbey and along the coast.

This system will be a wet one.  For example, the 24-h totals ending 5 AM on Sunday reach 2-5 inches of liquid water on the highest peaks, and 1-2 inches of water on most of the windward slopes. 

 But a lot of that water will not fall as rain in the mountains, but SNOW.  Lots of snow.
This will be the first big snow event in the Cascades this season--the predicted 24-h snow totals ending 5 AM on Sunday are over a foot in favored locations.

The first major wind/rain/snowstorm of the season...its been about time.  Enjoy.

Announcement:  Ivar's Mukilteo Landing restaurant (my favorite weather-themed eating establishment) will have a special dinner and a presentation (by me) to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the on storm that destroyed the restaurant in 2003.  It will take place next Thursday, November 7.  More information here.  Limited to 40 people.

Seattle Residents:   Please consider voting for Sue Peters for School Board. Check out my previous blog for more information.