4 PM NOWCAST for the Heavy Precipitation Event

As predicted earlier today, this afternoon has been generally dry over most of the state.

Also, as per the HRRR and UW WRF modeling systems, heavy precipitation has exploded in northern Oregon this afternoon and is moving towards Washington. 

Here is the latest radar (3:54 PM)...you can see the strong echoes, with reds indicating torrential rain and hail.

What I am trying to expose you to is state-of-the-art forecasting in which information is frequently updated using modern rapid-update modeling systems.   So what does the NOAA HRRR system indicate for the next 12 hours?

At 6 PM, the heavy line of showers is crossing the border.

 Buy 11 PM heavy rain is over Puget Sound and SW Washington.  The rain had moved quickly into northeastern WA as well.

 At 3 AM it is still raining over Puget Sound and some of the precipitation has circled around down towards Portland.

Bottom line: wet night in Washington.  Total predicted rainfall for the 15 hours ending 3 AM is shown below.  1-3 inches over SW Washington and northwest Oregon.  And it is not over at that point.

This is not an end of the world event.  The ground is dry and can soak a lot up.  The rivers are low and can handle the precipitation.   But it is educational to see how far weather prediction has come and the great discrepancy between what meteorologists know and what many media outlets provide.

Announcement:  My Public Lecture Series on NW Weather

I am giving a five-lecture evening short course: "Reading the Northwest Sky: Understanding Our Weather and Climate"  

October 1, October 22, November 5, November 26, December 3  
Kane Hall: University of Washington 
Co-Presented by University of Washington Alumni Association   and Seattle Public Lectures.

If anyone is interested, more information here.