I will have an update nowcast at 10 AM Sunday.... I spent my early evening getting my home ready for the onslaught....and by day break the rain will have overspread the region.
The new 4-km WRF model run is the same story as before : heavy rain from two major pulses on Saturday and Sunday. Here is the 72 hr precipitation totals over the Northwest. Much of the terrain will get 5-10 inches, some of the higher peaks more.
Let's zoom in over western Washington. What a contrast! More then 10 inches over the higher Olympics, while about a half inch over Sequim. A factor of 20...amazing. In Sequim on Saturday there will only some light rain. Over Puget Sound there will be a strong north-south gradient in precipitation...a lot more in Tacoma than Everett.
Now, there is a another threat that must be mentioned. A small but intense low center will form on Sunday over the Pacific and will move northeastward, crossing somewhere between the Olympics and central Vancouver Island. Here are two solutions for Sunday at 8 PM. The UW NAM-MM5 has the low over Tatoosh, Big threat of strong winds over Puget Sound.
While the WRF-GFS takes it a bit far northwest. Both bring strong pressure gradients and strong winds to the coast, which you can expect 40-60 mph gusts.
The WRF surface winds for this time, show sustained winds of 35 kts (40 mph) along the coast and over the interior waters of NW Washington. Gusts would be considerably higher.
Enjoy the weather show. Not a good day for a hike.
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